2023: Should Ethnicity, Religion or Competency Influence Voting Patterns?

Since the Amalgamation of Southern and Northern protectorates by the Governor-General, Sir Fredirick Lord Lugard in 1914, Nigeria has passed through different phases of political development. Prior to Nigeria’s political independence from Great Britain, there were three dominant political parties that enjoyed large followership based on ethno-religious lines.

The Action Group (AG) was led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Samuel Akintola and Anthony Enahoro. AG was a political party that held sway in the Western Region dominated by the Yoruba and Edo ethnic groups.

The Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) was formed by leading politicians such as Sir Ahmadu Bello and Tafawa Balewa. NPC was the predominant party of the Muslim dominated Hausa/Fulani tribes of Northern Nigeria.

The National Council of Nigeria and Cameroons (NCNC) led by Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe protected the interests of the Ibo speaking people of Eastern region who are mainly  Christians.

Intra party conflicts within AG, election rigging and tribal politics in the early 1960’s prompted the military to stage a coup d’etat on January 15, 1966. Between 1966 and 1979, Nigeria was under different military regimes.

The political parties that emerged shortly before 1979 general elections also followed the patterns of Nigeria’s first republic. The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) was the successor party to the defunct NPC. The Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) rode on the success of AG in Western Nigeria, while the Nigerians People’s Party (NPP) took the baton of Eastern region politics from NCNC. Results of the Presidential elections of 1979 and 1983 respectively showed that Nigerians voted along ethno-religious configurations.

The 2011 election epitomized the ethno-religious divide in Nigeria. The emergence of former President Goodluck Jonathan from the Christian South-South minority ethnic group sparked large scale violence in the Muslim dominated Northern states of Nigeria. Several Christians and Southerners were unjustly killed after the announcement of the results.

By February, 2023, another Presidential election will be held in Nigeria. Already top politicians are beginning to use religion and ethnicity as propaganda in order to appeal to the consciousness of Nigerians. This was after all the political parties have already unveiled their presidential candidates and their running mates to Nigerians.

Presently, the issue of religion and tribes where candidates came from has generated a lot of controversies especially immediately after the All Progressive Congress (APC) party conducted the party primary election that produced Senator Bola Tinubu as the presidential Candidate and Kasim Shettima, as his running mate both happened to be Muslim-Muslim

The decision of the All progressive congress (APC) presidential candidate, Sen. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Muslim from the south west to pick Senator Kasim Shetimma a Muslim from the North East however brought up the issue of religion to the fore front of the presidential debate.

This move has attracted many criticisms across the country owing to the fact that Nigeria being a secular country has a large number of Muslims and Christians. It is against this background that Rulers’ World News Media examines people’s opinion and disposition on whether ethnicity, religion or competency should influence voting patterns in Nigeria’s upcoming election.

The Northern Christian Association of Nigeria through Sunday Oibe, the secretary-general of northern CAN, said the decision by the All Progressives Congress is insensitive, adding that the Christian body will “not lose sleep” over APC’s choice as there are other political parties to consider.

He also said the “competence and capacity” reasons given by the APC candidate on choosing a Muslim-Muslim ticket are “untenable”, adding that there are competent people in every religious and ethnic group in Nigeria.

He further said the type of leaders Nigerians are looking for are people who can live up to their responsibilities. Nigerians need leaders who will solve the myriads of challenges facing the country, not leaders who are complacent when people are dying, a leader that will solve the problems of insecurity, power, electricity and create jobs.

According to him, “We don’t want religious bigots who will promote nepotism over issues of fairness and equality. We need a leader who will be fair to all.”

Yakubu Dogara, a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, also kicked against the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC). 

Dogara said it is hogwash to assert that no Christian is competent to be Tinubu’s running mate. He said the ticket would create disunity in the party and the country at large.

Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), says the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2023 presidential election will be resisted with prayers.

 

He said: “Christians all over the country see the Muslim- Muslim ticket as a deliberate and premeditated attempt to introduce and firmly entrench religion into the politics of this country. Which of course will lead to further disharmony in the hitherto fragile coexistence of the Nigerian society, disrupt peace and hamper both social and economic development of the country.

 

He further said that voting should be based on competency and that doesn’t mean there is no competent Christian who can be chosen as Senator Tinubu’s running mate. He said the APC, Muslim-Muslim ticket has been a long-term political strategy and not a one-off decision, thus, all the talk of competence as the reason for the choice of the Muslim Vice President is balderdash and diversionary. This is a calculated anti-Christian exclusion agenda that is being implemented,” he said.

 

Other Nigerians have also expressed their views on the controversies surrounding the choice of Muslim-Muslim ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as its Presidential and Vice-Presidential running mate.  

 

Elder (Dr) Taiye Ayorinde, Baale of Ekotedo and Chairman Yoruba World Assembly said as somebody who had been involved in partisan politics before he became Baale over twenty-eight years ago, voting was not based on ethnicity or religion but on competency. 

 

According to him, “the late Obafemi Awolowo came in as the Western Region Governor by competence and most of the people who ruled the western region ruled it with competency, they showed it and that was why western region stands out among other regions. It came to a point that the United Nations borrowed money from western region, but now, the reverse is the case simply because the people managing the Nigeria project are not capable, they don’t know what is good from left or right, they base everything on ethnicity, religion and party which is not good enough.”

 

He stressed further that the bad agenda of the present government has divided the country into a situation where it is difficult to merge  it together again as a one Nigeria, which is why he will rather ask for Yoruba nation or to go back to the regional government, where religion, ethnicity and tribe doesn’t take place.

 

Chief Ayorinde who concluded that competence should be the prime qualification for managing the affairs of this country, hinted that there is no region or tribe without competent people but nevertheless, there are more competent people in some regions than the others.

 

Another Nigerian, Oladejo Adeola said different people have different reasons for electing different candidates, such reasons are numerous and might be justified by the electorate, but there is only one valid and acceptable reason for electing a candidate’s performance. “I will choose competency any day over tribe or religion.” She said,

 

Alhaji kabir Tanko opined that the present government has breached people’s trust to the extent that people do not have trust in the so-called competency again unless everything is submitted to God.

 

He recalled how over seven years ago Nigerians including himself felt President Muhammadu Buhari is competent enough to be the messiah of Nigerians but the reverse is the case.

 

He disclosed that he did not see any political party or tribe getting things done as the whole tribe is messed up

“There is no political understanding between the political hierarchy and the masses in all regions and all tribes across the nation are facing the same problem of bad leadership. The issue of inflation in the cost of things and in-security has eaten deep into the fabrics of every region in the country and the government and political leaders from each tribe couldn’t do anything about it leaving the masses to be at the receiving end of all. No political party nor tribe can give us good government and if we talk about religion, nearly all the clerics have turned to beggars, they now go to the place where something will come out which is disheartening and this is why all the masses need to do is to come together with one voice and cry to God to rescue the nation, Nigeria.

 

Similarly, Alhaji Danjuma Yakubu, leader of Hausa in Oyo state said people should not vote because of tribalism, religion or sentiments. He said the best is to vote for someone that is capable and the person should get into power and do his best.  He urged people to always pray that God should give Nigerians a great leader that will be good to the masses.

 

Speaking in the same vein, Mr Ikechukwu Ekweremadu said candidates ought to be voted for based on their track records of performance, whether they held a political office in the past or they are just private individuals who used their wealth to develop their various communities, rather than sentimental attachments like tribe or religion.

 

Other Nigerians who spoke with Rulers’ World News Media advocated for a massive re-orientation of both the political class and the electorates in order to put Nigeria on the right track for all round development after the 2023 general elections.

 

Additional information was culled from Ethnicity and Religion: Key Indicators in Nigeria’s Electoral System – Landmark University, Omu-Aran.